Climate Change — 1.5 C is the least we need to do and it may not be enough

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued its Special Report on the impacts of global warming in South Korea, October 10, 2018. The Panel was requested to publish the Special Report by the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in its 21st session during which the Paris Agreement was signed (2015).

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Is climate change leading us to category 6?

It is quite likely that climate change is having an impact on the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons. In the last couple of weeks, the world has seen two major storms: Hurricane Florence, which hit the east coast of the US and Typhoon Mangkhut that has devastated the Philippines and parts of China.

It is possible that a changing climate can be slowing down storms by affecting (blocking) areas of high pressure in the atmosphere. It also results in more water vapour being created over warming seas. This vapour, therefore, has more time to rise up and becoming part of the storm and then falling as more intense rainfall. Rising sea levels have meant an increase in storm surges. Both intense rains and storm surges were observed during Hurricane Florence.

Typhoon Mangkhut was the strongest so far in the Philippines, which gets hit by about 20 typhoons and storms a  year. It had sustained winds of 209 km/h and brought flooding rains and mudslides, resulting in destruction and loss of lives. Again, there is a high possibility that a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture made its impacts more intense.

And the latest is Storm Ali, hitting the UK on September 19, 2018, with expected 80 mph winds. It arrives after Storm Helene hit Wales on Tuesday. Weather warnings are in place and there is already news of trees being brought down and a caravan blown away. Storm Ali is also supposed to bring widespread and persistent rain on Thursday across much of Scotland, Ireland and Northwest England.

Intense hurricanes and typhoons have already made their presence felt in the past several years. And new research indicates that a warming climate will further intensify storms bringing excessive rainfall and storm surges. A model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory generated findings that lend credence to this hypothesis. Projections show that “for the period 2016 – 2035 there were more hurricanes in general and 11% more hurricanes of the Category 3, 4 and 5 classes; by the end of the century, there were 20 percent more of the worst storms“.

Furthermore, the research indicates that storms of super extreme intensity, (with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph), are also more common. In a simulation of the 20th century, only 9 such storms were found, however, 32 were found for the period 2016-2035 and 72 for the period from 2081-2100.

At the moment there is no category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Category 5 begins at 157 mph. As a result, some researchers have suggested the possibility of a category 6. 

Not everyone agrees but it is definitely something to think about.

 

Image via The Weather Channel

Climate change impacts: Floods in Japan

(Picture Kyodo News/ AP via BBC)

The impacts of climate change are now manifesting on a regular basis. Recently, severe flooding in Japan wreaked devastation across Hiroshima and has killed almost 200 people, with 1.5 million people being displaced. And this, in a country that has some of the best flood defenses in the world.

According to the authorities in Japan, this can be classified as some of the worst weather that Japan has seen in many decades. And now, intense heat and water shortages are only exacerbating the situation. There is danger of disease and dehydration taking their toll on already beleaguered communities.

It is quite clear that extreme weather events taking place across the globe, whether they are increasing droughts in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, floods in Japan and unprecedented higher temperatures in the UK are all down to the adverse impacts of a changing climate.

The Paris Agreement may have committed countries to curtail green house gas emissions, however, the current levels of GHG emissions could already have led us to a devastating path.

Ice Loss Speeding up in the Antarctic

Antarctic sea ice losses are speeding up and have in fact surpassed estimates. Last week scientists (who are part of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise) announced that 3 trillion tonnes of ice was lost between 1992 – 2017. Annual ice loss has more than doubled in the Antarctic Peninsula and tripled in West Antarctica. And the losses are speeding up, with most of the losses occurring in the last five years.

This means that future predictions made by the IPCC may be too low. Previously, the range of predictions for the next 100 years predict no contribution at all, suggesting that ice loss from the continent’s glaciers will be offset by an increase in snowfall or they suggest losses equivalent to about 15 centimeters or so of sea-level rise. Previously, it was thought that Antarctica would stay in the range of the lower limit, the new research shows that it is tracking the upper limit.

“Around Brooklyn you get flooding once a year or so, but if you raise sea level by 15 centimeters then that’s going to happen 20 times a year,” said Andrew Shepherd, a professor of earth observation at the University of Leeds and the lead author of the study.

And to add to this, it is estimated that Greenland lost 1 trillion tonnes of ice between 2011 and 2014

Antarctica is not the only contributor to sea level rise. Greenland lost an estimated 1 trillion tons of ice between 2011 and 2014.

All of this is compounded by the fact that global warming is also warming ocean waters, making them expand and thus also raising sea levels further.

 

Where Did The Water Go?

(Published in Dunya News)

This growing water deficit is fast pushing Pakistan towards water poverty in the coming decades – a severe challenge for the government and policymakers. Without a sustainable and holistic water strategy and effective policymaking, a lot more cities and towns in the country will suffer the same fate as Cape Town. Perhaps even worse.

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40 Years Of Voyager And Other Space Shenanigans

(Published in Dunya Blogs)

Cassini will reach its end this year and Juno, the next. But the Voyagers, undoubtedly our greatest space mission, will continue their journey towards deep space. They have given us many moments of amazement. Perhaps the greatest one was when Voyager 2 turned its camera back towards the Earth to capture the entire Solar System, where Earth can be seen as a single pixel pale blue dot. Just a dot – in the entirety of the universe.

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